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    “全面小康”进程人民生活发展总体评价——2000~2016年民生指数检测

    摘要

    揭示中国“全面建成小康社会”进程出现的巨大进步,无疑应当以民生标准加以衡量。GDP总量占据全球第二在于宏观方面,微观方面,人民生活的变化或许更加深刻,其间蕴含“人民美好生活需要”的诸方面发展。2000~2016年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生数据人均值持续稳步增长,2016年居民收入为2000年的6。63倍,总消费为6。13倍,积蓄为8。35倍。物质消费比重明显下降5。46个百分点,非物消费比重明显增高5。46个百分点,消费结构出现较大升级变化。居民收入、总消费、积蓄地区差全都逐渐缩小;居民收入、总消费城乡比逐渐缩小,而居民积蓄城乡比持续扩大。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。但居民收入比从46。37%较明显下降至45。24%,居民消费率从35。91%明显下降至32。37%,“十二五”期间略有回升。尤其应注意居民收入年均增长明显低于财政收入年增3。58个百分点,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增4。08个百分点。居民积蓄率从22。57%持续明显升高至28。44%,反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。依据历年动态预测检验,至2020年全国居民收入城乡比将略微缩减,地区差也将略微缩减;居民总消费城乡比将明显缩减,地区差也将略微缩减。至2035年全国居民收入城乡比将继续较明显缩减,地区差亦将继续略微缩减;居民总消费城乡比将继续极显著缩减,地区差亦将继续略微缩减。

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    Abstract

    To reveal the great progress occurred in China’s process of “Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Aspects”,it is undoubtedly should be measured by people’s livelihood standard. From macroscopic view,China’s total GDP ranks second in the world,but the changes of the micro aspects of people’s lives may be more profound,in which includes the developments of the people’s needs for a better life. From macroscopic view,China’s total GDP ranks second in the world,but the changes of the micro aspects of people’s lives may be more profound. From 2000 to 2016,the per capita value of all types of people’s livelihood data in national urban and rural comprehensive calculation steadily continued to increase. The residents’ income in 2016 was 6.63 times of that in 2000,the total consumption was 6.13 times and the amassment was 8.35 times. The proportion of the residents’ material consumption evidently fell over 5.46 percentage points and the proportion of the residents’ immaterial consumption evidently rose over 5.46 percentage points,showing a certain upgrading change of the consumption structure. The regional disparity of the residents’ income,total consumption and amassment roundly continued to be reduced;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income and total consumption continued to be reduced,but that of the residents’ amassment continued to be extended. The unbalanced development has improved in the field of the people’s livelihood. But the residents’ income rate certainly fell from 46.37% to 45.24% and the residents’ consumption rate evidently fell from 35.91% to 32.37%,it rose slightly while the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. In particular,the average annual growth of the residents’ income was evidently 3.58 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal revenues and the average annual growth of the residents’ consumption expenditure was evidently 4.08 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal expenditure. The residents’ amassment rate evidently continued to rise from 22.57% to 28.44%,which in return aggravate the inhibition of consumption demand. Based on the dynamic prediction test of calendar year,the countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will slightly be reduced,and its regional disparity will slightly be reduced to 2020;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will evidently be reduced,and its regional disparity will slightly be reduced to 2020. The countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will continue to certainly be reduced,and its regional disparity will continue to slightly be reduced to 2035;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will continue to significantly be reduced,and its regional disparity will continue to slightly be reduced to 2035.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任,主要从事民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业研究。
    刘婷:刘婷,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心秘书长,主要从事文化人类学研究。
    赵娟:赵娟,云南省社会科学院文化发展研究中心副研究员,主要从事古典文学、民族文化和文化产业研究。
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