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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    江苏“十三五”人口发展趋势与对策建议

    摘要

    “十三五”时期,江苏人口发展既面临机遇,更有严峻挑战。劳动年龄人口(15~64岁)将开始逐年“萎缩”,人口预测显示未来5年全省青壮年劳动力人口降幅较大,15~24岁劳动力人口将减少16%或150万人左右,25~44岁劳动力人口将减少7%或180万人左右。2020年劳动年龄人口占总人口比例下降到70%以下,整体减少4个百分点或250万人左右。常住人口中,60岁以上老年人口比例超过20%,进入中度老龄化社会,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比双双攀升,人口抚养负担日益加重。除少子老龄化之外,江苏出生性别比长期居高不下,20~35岁青年男女性别失衡问题渐渐凸显。全面提高人口综合素质,持续优化人口空间布局,积极应对人口老龄化,推进基本公共服务均等化,促进重点人群共享发展,推动人口与经济社会、资源环境协调可持续发展,加快实现由人力资源大省向人力资源强省转变,需要从鼓励落实二孩政策的配套措施、积极应对人口老龄化、推动非户籍人口落户城镇等方面加大改革力度,为全面高水平小康建设打下最重要的人力资源基础。

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    Abstract

    During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period,Jiangsu’s population development faces both opportunities and profound challenges. It is estimated that the working-age population aged 15-64 in the province will be reduced by 4 percentage points or 2.5 million,and the proportion of the total population will drop below 70% by the end of 2020. The labor force population of young and middle-aged people will have a larger decline. The labor force population aged 15-24 will be reduced by 16% or 1.5 million people,and the 25-44-year-old labor force population will be reduced by 7% or 1.8 million. In the permanent population,the proportion of elderly people over 60 years old exceeds 20%,and they enter a moderately aging society. By the end of 2020,it will reach 22%. In addition to the aging of the low birth rate,the sex ratio at birth in Jiangsu has remained high for a long period of time,and the gender imbalance of young men and women aged 20-35 has gradually become more prominent. In addition,both the old-age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio have risen,and the burden of population support has increased. Comprehensively improve the overall quality of the population,continuously optimize the spatial layout of the population,actively respond to the aging of the population,promote the equalization of basic public services,promote the sharing and development of key populations,promote the coordinated and sustainable development of population and economy,society and resources,and accelerate human resources development. The province has changed from a strong human resources province,and it is necessary to step up reforms in terms of supporting measures to encourage the implementation of the two-child policy,actively responding to the aging of the population,and promoting non-domestic households to settle in cities and towns,laying the most important human resource foundation for an overall society.

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    作者简介
    苗国:苗国,江苏省社会科学院区域现代化研究院助理研究员。
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