财务欺诈影响金融机构尽职调查履责,侵害投资者经济利益,对其进行识别将有利于指导建立前期尽职调查及存续期跟踪的侧重点,有助于风险识别的标准化、高效化、常态化。本文基于2000年1月~2018年1月间因利润欺诈被监管处罚的企业样本,利用因子分析和逐步回归logit建立财务欺诈预警模型。在此基础上,本文发现资产质量、盈利情况、现金流稳定性对于识别企业财务欺诈的意义尤为重要,而当年是否变更审计事务所、扣除非经常损益后是否亏损等两个指标也对欺诈预警有一定的意义。
<<Fraudulent financial statement will mislead the due diligence,thus making investors suffer losses. It is important to know how to detect the fraud in the early stage of a project. So institutions that need to do surveys could keep track of the characteristics of the fraudulent financial statement,and stop the project in time if fraud occurs. Based on the enterprise sample from Jan.2000 to Jan.2018 that received regulatory penalty for profit fraud,this paper builds a financial statement fraud detecting model using factor analysis and logistic model. We find asset quality,earnings and the stability of cash flow is important to detect the fraud. Also,the change of audit firm,the net profit after deducting non regular profit and loss is meaningful for detecting.
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