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    河南省人口结构与产业结构耦合分析

    摘要

    为更好地探讨人口结构和产业结构之间的相互关系,本文以河南省18个地级市为研究对象,通过构建人口结构和产业结构评价指标体系,借助灰色关联模型和耦合度模型测算河南省人口结构和产业结构耦合度,分析人口结构和产业结构的耦合特征。结果表明:1998~2015年两大结构的耦合度呈现“倒U”形变化,耦合类型不断优化,由低水平耦合逐步向协调型过渡;人口结构和产业结构之间的关联度各不相同,但处于较高水平,属于中高度关联。其中老年人口比重、中学及以上人口比重与第三产业关联度较高,小学及以下人口比重是第一产业发展的主要驱动力,城镇人口、劳动年龄人口是影响第二产业发展的重要因素;根据各地区耦合度和经济发展水平可以将河南省划分为4种类型区:协调型耦合区、磨合型耦合区、拮抗型耦合区以及低水平耦合区。全省18个地级市以低水平耦合类型、拮抗耦合类型为主,磨合型和协调型区域多集中于中部、西北部地区,低水平协调区域大致分布于西南部地区,整体上呈现阶梯分布状态,并且同一类型的区域在空间上呈现出空间集聚的特点。

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    Abstract

    This paper takes the population structure and industrial structure of Henan Province as the main line,takes 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province as the research object. By constructing a population structure and industrial structure evaluation index system and using a grey relational model and a coupling degree model to analyze the coupling characteristics of population structure and industrial structure. The results show that the degree of coupling between the two major structures presented “inverted U-shaped” changes from 1998 to 2015,and that they were tended to antagonize and ultimately tend to be coordinated by low-level coupling; the degree of correlation between population structure and industrial structure varies. There is a high degree of association between these two structures,which is a medium-high degree of association. Among them,the proportion of the elderly population,the proportion of middle school students and above and the tertiary industry are relatively high. The proportion of the population below the primary school is the main driving force for the development of the primary industry. The urban population and the working-age population are important factors affecting the development of the secondary industry. Each area in Henan Province can be divided into four types:low-level coupling region,antagonistic coupling region,running-in coupling region,and coordinated coupling region. The spatial distribution of the population-industry coupling degree in the province is dominated by low-level coupling types and antagonistic coupling types. Coarse and coordination regions are mostly concentrated in the central and northwest regions,and low-level coordination regions are generally distributed in the southwest region. The overall distribution shows a stepped distribution state,and the same type of area appears the spatial agglomeration characteristics in space.

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    作者简介
    张洁:张洁,河南大学硕士。
    赵建吉:赵建吉,黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心副教授。
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