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    政局多变的选举年与起死回生的大联盟

    摘要

    “舒尔茨效应”快速衰减后,社民党在三场州级选举中接连败北。舒尔茨力推聚焦社会公正的大选纲领,以凸显本党的特点,但效果有限,与联盟党的差距继续拉大。大选中,基民盟、基社盟和社民党的得票率均创1949年以来的最低值,德国另类选择党则成为联邦议院的第三大政治力量。这不仅改变了德国政党构成的光谱,也为未来政局的发展增添了不确定性。黑黄绿三党结盟组阁的试探性磋商因自民党的退出而破裂。经过联邦总统的斡旋,原先决定充当反对党的社民党愿意与基民盟/基社盟举行试探性磋商。此后该党特别党代会通过决议,同意进一步与联盟党就重组大联合政府举行正式谈判。社民党在组阁中得利最多,基社盟次之,基民盟则最少。《联合执政协议》由社民党党员票决认可并交三党领袖签署后,黑、红大联盟终于起死回生。历经近半年组建的第四届默克尔内阁在施政中仍将面临挑战与风险。

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    Abstract

    After the rapid vanishing of the “Schulz effect”,the SPD lost in three successive state elections. In the program for the federal election,Martin Schulz focused on social justice to highlight the SPD's characteristics,but to limited effect:the gap to the CDU/CSU continued to widen. The voting share of the CDU,the CSU and the SPD in the general election was the lowest since 1949,while the AfD became the third largest political force. This not only changed the political landscape considerably,but also added uncertainty to its future. The preliminary talks aimed at forming a - black,yellow and green - Jamaica coalition collapsed after the withdrawal of the liberal FDP (Free Democratic Party). After mediation by the Federal President,the SPD,that had originally decided to enter the opposition,declared its readiness to hold preliminary talks with the CDU/CSU. Subsequently,an extraordinary SPD party conference agreed to launch formal coalition negotiations with the CDU/CSU. In terms of the Coalition Agreement's content,the SPD benefits the most,followed by the CSU,while the CDU benefits least. After the Agreement was approved by the members of the SPD and signed by the leaders of the three parties,the black-red coalition made a thrilling comeback. Yet this-fourth-Merkel government,which took six months to be formed,will face a number of challenges and risks.

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    作者简介
    王广成:王广成,上海市现代管理研究中心资深翻译。
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