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    云南省泥石流灾害空间分布特征研究

    摘要

    通过描述性统计分析、同质泊松过程检验、核平滑估计和聚类分析等多种方法,结合R软件作图的可视化优点,对云南省泥石流灾害空间分布特征进行识别、分析。分析结果表明:云南省泥石流分布不均匀,灾害空间点模式分布与同质泊松过程的假定不符。此外,泥石流强度的核平滑估计和基于泥石流空间位置的聚类分析结果也表明云南省泥石流灾害具有显著的聚集特征。其中,泥石流高聚集区主要集中于贡山-维西-福贡、泸水-玉龙-隆阳-腾冲、盈江-陇川、金平-元阳-绿春等地区;较高聚集区位于华坪-永胜-鹤庆、沧源-耿马-镇康、景东-双柏-楚雄、马关、东川-会泽-巧家、盐津-大关-彝良等地区。泥石流灾害强度分布大致以怒江州泸水县南端至文山州金平县一线对称,尤其是滇西和滇西北地区。研究结论对识别云南省泥石流灾害风险、优化灾害监测站的分布、提高预测的精度和效率、减少灾害损失、优化救灾物资储备、改善救灾策略、完善巨灾保险救灾体系具有重要的参考借鉴意义。

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    Abstract

    The spatial distribution characteristics of debris flow disaster in Yunnan Province are identified and analyzed by means of many methods included descriptive statistical analysis,homogeneity Poisson process testing,kernel smoothing estimation and clustering analysis,combined with the advantages of visualization of R project. The results show that the non-uniform distribution of debris flow in Yunnan Province is different with the hypothesis of homogeneous Poisson process. In addition,kernel smoothing estimation of debris flow intensity and the cluster analysis based on the spatial location of debris flow indicate that the debris flow disaster in Yunnan Province has remarkable aggregation characteristics. Among them,The highest aggregation degree area of debris flow mainly includes Gongshan-Vici-Fugong,Lushui-Yulong-Longyang-Tengchong,Yingjiang-Longchuan,Jinping-Yuanyang-Lvchun and so on. Slightly higher aggregation degree areas are located in Huaping-Yongsheng-Heqing,Cangyuan-Gengma-Zhenkang,Jingdong-Shuangbai-Chuxiong,Maguan,Dongchuan-Huize-Qiaojia,Yanjin-Daguan-Yiliang and so on. The intensity distribution of debris flow disaster is roughly symmetrical to a line from the southern end of Nujiang Lushui County to Wenshan Jinping County,especially in western Yunnan and northwestern Yunnan. The conclusions are of great referential significances for identifying disaster risk debris flow disaster in Yunnan Province,optimizing the distribution of disaster monitoring stations,improving the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting,reducing disaster loss,optimizing disaster relief materials reserve,improving disaster relief strategies and perfecting catastrophe insurance disaster relief system.

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    作者简介
    何树红:何树红,云南大学经济学院教授,博士,研究方向为灾害统计与风险管理。
    邹丽华:
    姜毅:
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