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    地方政府债务风险管理

    摘要

    在中国工业化、城镇化、市场化大发展的背景下,地方政府的债务融资行为日渐增多,在财政体制、投融资体制、行政晋升考核机制的共同作用下,地方政府债务出现了较快增长,尤其自2008年金融危机以来,地方为了应对经济下行压力出台了一系列反周期政策,地方政府投融资行为多元化,举债方式或直接或间接,导致了地方政府债务风险上升。财政部门为了应对债务风险,从债务存量和增量两方面入手进行调整,包括建立债务风险预警及处置机制,但是现实中收效有限。因此,本报告反思现有制度主义思维下的管理失效现象,从行为主义角度进行分析并提出部分政策建议,主要包括从固守制度转向遵守契约精神,从单项管理转向多元治理,从微观审慎转向宏观审慎管理,建立完备的债务问责机制,适度扩大部分地区地方债市场发行规模。

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    Abstract

    Under the background of industrialization,urbanization and marketization,more and more debt financing behaviors of local governments in China are taking place. Under the combined effect of the fiscalsystem,investment and financing system and administrative promotion assessment mechanism,local government debt increased rapidly. In particular,since the financial crisis of 2008,local governments have introduced a series of counter-cyclical policies in response to the downward pressure on the economy. Diversified investment and financing behaviors and various forms of debt borrowing have led to increasing risks of local government debt. In order to cope with the debt risks,the department adjusted the debt stock and the increment,including the establishment of the debt risk warning and disposal mechanism,but the effect was not very good. Therefore,this report will reflect on the phenomenon of management failure under the current institutionalism thinking,analyze it from the perspective of behaviorism and put forward some policy recommendations. It mainly includes shifting from compliance with the institution to adherence to the spirit of a contract,from single management to multiple governance,and from micro-prudential to macro-prudential management,to establish a complete debt accountability mechanism and to appropriately expand the issuance scale of the local bond market in some regions.

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    作者简介
    王志刚:王志刚,经济学博士,中国财政科学研究院宏观经济研究中心副主任,研究员,主要研究领域为宏观经济、财税政策评估、政府债务、应用计量经济学等。
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