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    2017~2018年北京市金融运行形势分析与预测

    摘要

    本文分析了2017年北京市金融运行特点,认为存贷款增速总体平稳,其中,人民币存款增速明显下行,人民币贷款增速保持平稳,外币存款增速有所回升,外币贷款继续负增长,直接融资规模大幅下降,贷款利率、债券融资成本总体上行,二者之间形成倒挂。需要关注货币政策传导在北京呈现的“央企效应”、房地产市场的潜在风险与问题、金融体系“去杠杆”中的相关风险、存贷款基准利率与货币政策工具操作利率调整不同步可能带来相关影响等。建议进一步畅通货币政策传导渠道和机制,继续保持房地产金融调控政策的稳定性并积极服务于长效调控机制建设,采取多种方式进一步加强利率政策调控的灵活性,不断完善流动性风险防控机制。

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    Abstract

    This article analyzes the characteristics of Beijing’s financial operation in 2017,and believes that the growth rate of deposits and loans is generally stable. Among them,the growth rate of RMB deposits has dropped significantly,the growth rate of RMB loans has remained stable,the growth rate of foreign currency deposits has rebounded,foreign currency loans have continued to grow negatively,and direct financing has continued. The scale has dropped sharply,and loan interest rates and bond financing costs have generally risen. There has been an upside down between the two. It is necessary to pay attention to the “central-enterprise effect” of the transmission of monetary policy in Beijing,the potential risks and problems in the real estate market,the related risks in the “relearning” of the financial system,the adjustment of the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans,and the adjustment of the monetary policy instruments’ operating interest rates,related influences and so on. It is suggested that monetary policy transmission channels and mechanisms should be further smoothed,and the stability of real estate financial control policies should be maintained and actively served in the construction of long-term control mechanisms. Various methods should be adopted to further increase the flexibility of interest rate policy adjustments and improve liquidity risk prevention and controlled mechanism.

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    作者简介
    孙丹:孙丹,中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处,助理研究员,经济学博士,主要研究方向为宏观经济、金融运行、货币政策等。
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