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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2017~2018年北京经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2017年,世界经济恢复增长势头且超出预期。在此背景下,中国经济增长稳中有升,增长质量进一步提高。在此国内外有利环境下,北京经济增速保持适度稳定,“软着陆”形态初步形成;固定资产投资稳步增长,投资结构更趋合理;消费结构进一步优化,网购消费高速增长;新兴产业快速增长,在全市GDP中比重持续提高;物价指数小幅上涨;城乡居民收入实现稳定增长,医住消费快速扩大。本文运用数理经济学模型实证分析了市场规模、产业结构和通用技术三个关键因素在提高北京创新能力中的影响作用。围绕疏解非首都功能,分析了北京“腾笼换鸟”过程中存在的困难和认识误区。针对北京经济发展中的现实问题,分析了北京建设现代化经济体系的战略目标和战略路径。最后对北京2018年经济形势进行了预测和展望。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,the recovery momentum of the world economy exceeded the expectation. Against this background,China’s economic growth has steadily increased and the quality of its growth has further improved. Under this favorable environment both at home and abroad,Beijing’s economic growth rate has remained moderately stable,and a “soft landing” form has taken shape. Investment in fixed assets has increased steadily,investment structure has become more rational,consumption structure has been further optimized,online shopping and consumption have grown at a rapid rate,emerging industries have grown rapidly,the proportion of GDP in the city has continued to increase,price indices have risen slightly,moderate inflation has contributed to economic growth,and incomes of urban and rural residents have increased. To achieve steady growth,medical and consumer spending has rapidly expanded. Based on past research results,the three key factors for improving Beijing’s innovation capabilities are analyzed using mathematical-economic models:market size,industrial structure,and general technology. Focusing on relieve non-capital functions,the difficulties and misunderstandings in Beijing’s “urban function conversion” were empirically analyzed. Aiming to the practical issues in the economic development of Beijing,the strategic objectives and strategic path of Beijing’s construction of a modern economic system were analyzed. Finally,the article forecasts Beijing’s economic situation in 2018.

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    作者简介
    北京市社会科学院经济形势分析与预测课题组:
    唐勇:唐勇,经济学博士,北京市社会科学院经济所助理研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济学、数量经济学。
    杨松:杨松,北京市社会科学院经济所所长,副研究员,主要研究方向为城市经济、城市治理、市政公用事业市场化等。
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