本文首先从理论上分析了养老保障制度对农村老年人劳动时间的影响机制,然后采用2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)基线数据,通过计量实证方法,系统分析了“新农保”对农村老年人农业劳动时间和非农劳动时间的影响,并采用倾向得分匹配法进行了稳健性检验。结果表明:(1)“新农保”的实施会使农村老年人的农业劳动时间平均减少11。8天,但对非农劳动时间没有显著影响。(2)“新农保”的实施对老年男性影响更大,其农业劳动时间比老年女性多减少6。1天,但老年男性和老年女性的非农劳动时间均不受影响。(3)“新农保”对60~69岁老年人农业劳动时间的影响较大,对70岁及以上老年人的影响相对较小;对60~69岁老年人的非农劳动时间没有显著影响,但会显著降低70岁及以上老年人的非农劳动时间。
<<This paper first analyzes the impact of the old-age security system on the working time of the rural elderly. Using the China’s Health and Retirement Survey(CHARLS)2011 data,this paper systematically analyzes the influence of “new farmer’s insurance” on the agricultural labor time and non-agricultural labor time in rural areas. On this basis,Using the Propensity Score Matching to do a robustness test and calculate the average treatment effect of the treatment group(participating in the new agricultural insurance)and the control group(not participating in the new agricultural insurance). Our results show that:(1)The implementation of the new agricultural insurance will make the average rural labor time in rural areas reduced by 11.8 days,but no significant impact on non-agricultural labor time;(2)The implementation of the new agricultural insurance has a greater impact on older men,the agricultural labor time than the elderly women more than 6.1 days,but older men and older women non-agricultural labor time are not affected;(3)The impact of the new agricultural insurance on the labor time of the aged 60-69 years old is relatively large and the impact on the elderly aged 70 years and older is relatively small;there is no significant effect on the non-farm labor time of the aged 60-69 years old,but would significantly reduce the non-farm labor time of the elderly aged 70 years and older.
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