建筑业作为我国国民经济体系中的主要支柱产业之一,一直处于较高速的发展期,而数量巨大的建筑废弃物成为近年来国内外学者关注的焦点问题之一。本文基于系统动力学的理论与方法,构建了包含城市建筑施工垃圾系统、拆除垃圾系统、装修垃圾系统3个子系统的北京市建筑废弃物系统动力学模型,进而建立了北京市建筑垃圾系统的存量图,对2010~2050年北京市建筑垃圾的产量进行预测分析。最后通过现状型、提高建筑垃圾成本政策、人口控制政策、老旧小区拆除重建政策、垃圾资源化处理政策五种方案的仿真,探讨了建筑废弃物减排机制及减量化的政策建议。
<<As one of the main pillar industries in our country’s national economy,construction industry has been at a relatively high speed of development. However,a large amount of construction waste has become one of the most important issues that scholars at home and abroad have paid close attention to in recent years. Based on the theory and method of system dynamics,this paper constructs a dynamic model of Beijing’s construction waste system including three subsystems of urban construction waste system,demolition waste system and refurbishment waste system,and then builds the stock of Beijing’s construction waste system figure,2010-2050 production forecast of construction waste in Beijing. Finally,through the simulation of the current situation,construction waste charging policy,population relocation policy,demolition and reconstruction of old urban areas,and garbage disposal policies,the paper discussed the policy of reducing emission and reducing the amount of waste.
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