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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    美国移民现状与特朗普移民政策2018

    摘要

    特朗普上任第一年,美国的移民政策发生了重大转向,给美国国内社会带来了显著影响。本文主要依据美国国土安全部统计年鉴,并以2008年至今美国外交部颁发的签证资料数据作为参考,从多个角度分析了2017年美国移民情况。对比奥巴马任期内的具体政策与移民数据,特朗普执政以来各大类合法移民数量均明显减少,多项指标扭转了近十年来的增长趋势。该政策变化美国国内白人中产阶级焦虑的映射,也是日益紧张的国际安全局势的直接后果。最后,本文就特朗普移民政策可能给各类移民群体、美国经济社会及全球外交带来的影响进行了分析。可以认为,短期内收紧的移民政策,虽然能够对非法移民潮、犯罪产生威慑,解决部分低技能美国本土蓝领工人的失业问题,但是在全球化不可逆的背景下,这将降低美国对于高端移民的吸引力,增加联邦政府财政负担并使边境问题更加复杂化。

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    Abstract

    In the first year of Trump administration,the immigration policy of the United States has a major turn,which not only has a significant impact on the domestic society but also brings great changes to international setup. On the basis of the statistical yearbook of the Department of Homeland Security and the visa information issued by the US foreign ministry since 2008,this paper analyzes U.S immigration of 2017 from multiple perspectives. Compared with relevant policies and immigration data in Obama’s tenure,the number of legal immigrants in various categories has been significantly reduced and many indicators have reversed the trend of growth in the past decade. This is a reflection of the prevailing anxiety among the middle class of U.S and a direct consequence of the increasingly tense international security situation. Finally,this paper analyzes the influence of Trump’s immigration policy on all kinds of immigrants,social and economical development of U.S and global diplomacy. We draw the conclusion that in the short run,the tightened immigration policy can fight against illegal immigration,reduce the crime rate and relieve the unemployment problem of some low-skilled American blue collar workers. However,in an irreversible context of globalization,this will also reduce the attractiveness to high-end immigrants,increase the financial burden and the complexity of the border conflicts. As the most important nation of immigrants is growing conservative,a new trend in the international immigration system can be expected.

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    作者简介
    杨靖旼:杨靖旼,博士,全球化智库国际移民研究副总监,中央编译局博士后。
    宋名琪:宋名琪,哥伦比亚大学硕士,全球化智库实习生。
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