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    2017年河南省电力需求形势回顾与2018年预测

    摘要

    2017年,河南电力消费增速稳步提升,用电结构持续优化,电力增长动力逐步转换,用电负荷再创新高,业扩净增容量大幅上升,全年电力需求增长态势良好。当前,河南经济发展稳中向好、好中蕴新,供给侧结构性改革持续深化,重点行业去产能不断推进,同时节能减排力度不断加大,电力体制改革进度加快,全省电力需求增长的环境愈加复杂。报告通过重点行业分析法等预测手段,预计2018年全省全社会用电量3370亿千瓦时,同比增长6%左右。未来,河南电力消费增长空间广阔,需进一步推进清洁取暖、城乡配电网建设,构建以电力为中心的能源消费新模式,不断促进全省电力消费转型升级。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,Henan’s electricity consumption growth is steadily improved. The structure of electricity consumption continued to be optimized. The power growth momentum was gradually transformed,and the electricity load reached a new high. The net expansion capacity of the industry expanded substantially. The growth of electricity demand in the year witnessed a good growth. At present,Henan’s economy has been developing steadily in the midst of favorable growth,good accumulate in the new,Supply-side structural reforms have continued to deepen. Major industries have continuously pushed forward capacity-building. At the same time,energy-saving and emission reduction efforts have been steadily intensified,the reform of the power system has accelerated,and the environment is more complicated. In this paper,by means of forecasting methods such as key industry analysis,it is estimated that the total electricity consumption of the whole province will reach 337 billion kilowatt-hours by 2018,up by about 6% over the same period of last year. Henan will have a vast space for growth in power consumption. It is necessary to further promote clean heating and urban-rural distribution network construction,and establish a new mode of energy consumption centered on power generation so as to continuously promote the transformation and upgrading of power consumption in the province.

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    作者简介
    赵文杰:赵文杰,国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院工程师,工学硕士,研究方向为电力供需、电网规划。
    华远鹏:华远鹏,国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院工程师,工学硕士,研究方向为能源电力经济与电网规划。
    宋大为:宋大为,国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院经济师,经济学博士,研究方向为能源经济与电力市场。
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