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谢伏瞻
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    委内瑞拉:经济风险持续放大

    摘要

    委内瑞拉经济在2017年继续负增长,通胀压力持续加剧。尽管原油出口价格出现反弹,但原油产量继续下滑,原油出口收入不足以改变整体经济状况。委内瑞拉在年内举行3场重要选举,使政局暂趋稳定。但是,执政的委内瑞拉统一社会主义党内部分歧公开化,朝野政党之间的矛盾仍然尖锐。2018年总统选举将使该国政局面对重大挑战。随着经济形势的恶化,许多委内瑞拉人移民国外。为应对通胀的冲击,马杜罗政府在年内3次提高全国最低工资。在对外政策领域,委内瑞拉面对来自周边国家的巨大外交压力。

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    Abstract

    Venezuela saw its GDP shrink for the fourth year running in 2017 and the inflation skyrocketed remarkably due to expansionary monetary policies. Although there was a large increase of oil prices,crude oil outputs in the country continued to drop and failed to improve the economy. Venezuela is expected to contract consecutively in 2018. There were three major elections in 2017,including the constituent assembly,the regional and the municipal elections,which contributed to restoring political stability temporarily in the country. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela(PSUV)witnessed intensified internal conflicts. The upcoming presidential election is to be a major challenge confronting the country in 2018. As an effort to combat the effects of inflation,the government raised the minimum wage three times in the year. Despite financial pressure,it still gave priority to advancing the Gran Misión Vivienda(GMVV)to improve people’s housing conditions. As a result of rising domestic conflicts,Venezuela faced rising diplomatic pressure from regional countries.

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    作者简介
    王鹏:王鹏,法学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员、综合研究室主任、中美洲和加勒比中心秘书长,主要从事拉美政治研究。
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