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谢伏瞻
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    2017~2018年拉美经济形势:弱势复苏,被边缘化风险加大

    摘要

    2017年,世界经济复苏企稳,全球贸易和投资扩大,大宗商品价格有较大幅度反弹,拉美和加勒比地区结束了持续两年的衰退,经济重获增长,通货膨胀和国际收支等主要基础性指标出现一定好转。三大次区域经济表现不一,地区间增长差异有所收敛,但以中美洲地区的持续减速为代价。在宏观经济改善的背景下,地区各国的财政政策以财政稳健为目标,增收节流成为地区多国政策的选择,而货币政策的弹性和空间有所恢复,在提供经济增长激励方面发挥一定作用。然而,在国际比较视野下,地区增长率仍然偏低,被边缘化的风险在加大。展望未来,在外部利好的形势下,2018年地区经济有望继续增长。但是,由于外部不确定性加大,地区经济在中短期内难以实现强势反弹,内部增长差异也将继续。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,thanks to the steady recovery of the world economy,global trade and investment expansion,as well as commodity price rebound,Latin America and the Caribbean ended its recession in the past two years. The regional economy recovered and major macro indicators like inflation and international payments turned better. The three major regional economies showed different economic performance. The differences in regional growth converged,yet at the expense of the consecutive slowdown in Central America. Against the background of macroeconomic improvement,fiscal policy of all countries in the region targeted fiscal stability. Increasing income and throttling expenditure have become the choice of regional policies. Meanwhile,the elasticity and space of monetary policy grew a little bit,playing a certain role in providing incentives for economic growth. However,in view of international comparison,the rate of regional growth is still low,and the risk of being marginalized is increasing. Looking forward to the future,the regional economy is expected to continue its growth in 2018 under the favorable external circumstances. However,due to the increase of external uncertainties,the regional economy is difficult to achieve a strong rebound in the middle and short term,and the differences in internal growth will continue.

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    作者简介
    岳云霞:岳云霞,经济学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室研究员、经济研究室主任。主要研究领域为拉美经济、国际贸易与投资。
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