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    2018年中国传媒投资前瞻报告

    摘要

    本章在对2018年中国传媒投资的周期性、结构性特征和内在逻辑转换进行整体研判的基础上,着重探讨了未来传媒投资市场格局变动趋势、热点领域和相关风险。当前传媒产业正处于从信息互联向价值互联、从流量红利向存量深耕的深层发展逻辑转换期,新周期、新结构必然呼唤新的投资策略与投资标的选择逻辑,产业迭代进程加速,不排除今日表现良好的“现金牛”项目一朝迭代沦为明日黄花的可能,需要面向未来选准潜力赛道进行组合布局。当前,不同资本市场对战略新兴产业争夺加剧,网络信息产业、数字文化产业发展赢得政策大力支持,行业集中态势更趋明显,龙头公司市值大幅领先,中小市值公司生存压力加剧,国有传媒企业沿着混合所有制改革和媒介融合两大主线持续深化内部改革与外延扩张。在资本市场与文化传媒行业双线监管都进一步收紧的态势下,传媒创新面对政策、技术、市场和商业模式多重压力,单体项目的投资风险进一步加剧,业绩对赌和并购整合不力引发商誉减值成为重要风险源头。

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    Abstract

    Based on the overall analysis of the periodicity,structural characteristics and internal logic transformation of China's media investment in 2018,this chapter focuses on the changes of media investment market patterns,hot spots and related risks in future. At present,the media industry is in the period of deep development and logic transformation which is characterized by transformation from information interconnection to value interconnection and from flow dividend to stock cultivation in depth. New cycle and new structure will inevitably call for new investment strategy and logic for investment target selection. The process of industry iteration has accelerated,but all these do not rule out the possibility that “cash cow” project,which has performed well today,will be the past story. So,potential tracks should be chosen and arranged for future. At present,competitions for strategic emerging industries has intensified in different capital markets,and the development of network information industry and digital culture industry has won the support from policies. Besides,the industry concentration has become more concentrated,and leading companies has a main position in the market value,leading to the pressure of small and medium-sized companies to survive has intensified. What's more,the state-owned media enterprises have continued to deepen internal reform and external expansion along the two main lines of the mixed ownership reform and media integration. Under the increasing strict supervision from the capital market and the cultural media industry,media innovation faces pressures from policies,technologies,markets and business models,and the investment risks of individual projects is further aggravated. Injury of reputation caused by gambling on performance,poor integration of mergers and acquisitions has become an important risk.

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    作者简介
    陈端:博士、中央财经大学新闻传播系副教授、媒体经济专业硕士研究生导师
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