本文采用国家卫生计生委流动人口动态监测调查数据,截取2016年冀豫鲁在京流动人口为分析对象,考察其在京居留意愿。主要研究发现:(1)冀豫鲁在京流动人口有六成以上打算在京长期居住(5年以上),按照居留意愿强弱排序依次为山东、河北、河南。(2)冀豫鲁在京流动人口中“70后”“80后”年龄段打算长期在京居住意愿高于“60后”“90后”年龄段流动人口,而且已婚家庭的流动人口打算在京长期居住意愿特别明显,“城-城”流动状态下的流动人口适应性与适应条件好于“乡-城”流动状态下的流动人口,前者更倾向打算在京长期居住。(3)冀豫鲁在京流动人口受到教育程度提高、家庭月平均收入和消费水平提高、社会阶层地位提升、居住形态升级、就业身份提升、流动时间积累较长等因素影响,更倾向打算在京长期居住,尤其是自购房者中95。9%的流动人口都有在京居留意愿。
<<By using the dynamic monitoring survey data of the floating population from The national health and Family Planning Commission,taking Hebei,Henan and Shandong’s floating population in Beijing in 2016 as the research object,the paper studies their residence intention in Beijing. It mainly shows that:(1)Over 60% of Hebei,Henan and Shandong’s floating population in Beijing plan to stay in Beijing for a long time(more than 5 years)and the residence intention from high to low is Shandong,Hebei and Henan.(2)Residence intention of the population born in the 1970’s and 1980’s is higher than those who were born in the 1960’s and 1990’s,the intention of the married family to stay in Beijing for a long time is obvious,floating population from cities to cities are more inclined to live in Beijing for a long time and their adaptability and conditions of adaptation is better than those who flow from rural areas to cities.(3)With the improvements in education,average monthly income and consumption level,social stratum,living patterns,employment status,flowing time and so on,the floating population from Hebei,Henan and Shandong are more inclined to live in Beijing for a long time. 95.9% of the floating population of those who bought houses have the intention to live in Beijing.
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