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    2017年深圳市房地产市场解析与2018年展望

    摘要

    2017年,深圳房地产开发投资再创新高。住宅方面,继续受“深八条”影响,新房统计均价总体平稳,二手房均价有所上升;两者成交量均创近年新低,二手房年末升势明显;优质学区的房价较普通学区上涨更快。其他物业方面,新建商业用房空置现象改善,写字楼新房供需两旺,典型区域租金涨幅较大。临深片区方面,新房成交因限购政策大幅缩水。土地供应成交创新低,纯居住用地仅一宗且为租赁用地。展望2018年,深圳经济基本面将为房地产发展提供有力支撑。住宅方面,房价或面临一定上行压力,区位分化加大;二手房成交受政策影响短期反响明显,长期将回归常态。其他物业方面,商务公寓将延续投资热度;优质写字楼相继入市,供需有望延续两旺格局。“棚户区改造”政策有望出台,公共住房用地紧张问题有望得到缓解。深圳对长租房源需求较大,企业参与方式将更加丰富。深汕特别合作区开始由深圳全面管理,将有效弥补深圳土地稀缺的短板,“飞地”效应将逐步显现。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,Shenzhen’s investment in real estate development reached a new height. As to residential market,the “eight measures to stabilize house prices” still affected the housing market. The price of new housing was generally stable while second-hand housing rose slightly. New housing and second-hand housing transaction volume both hit new lows in recent years,second-hand housing transaction volume rose significantly at the end of the year. Housing prices in high quality school districts rise faster than average school districts. As to other properties,the vacancy of commercial housings has been improved. As to office building,the supply and demand of new housing was booming in 2016. The rents in typical areas have increased significantly. As to the areas around Shenzhen,new housing transaction volume declined drastically because of the restriction of purchase policy. Both the supply and transaction volume of land were low. It supplied only one pure residential land in 2016,which is leased land.

    Looking forwardto 2018,Shenzhen’s economic fundamentals will provide strong support for real estate development. As to residential market,there may be some pressure on rising housing prices,and the regional differences have increased. The short-term response to second-hand housing transaction volume affected by policies is obvious,and it will return to normal in the long-term. As to other properties,the investment heat of commercial apartments will not be reduced. A large number of high-quality office buildings will enter the market,and the supply and demand of the office building will remain on an upward trend. The “shantytown transformation” policy is expected to enact,and it will ease the shortage of public housing land in Shenzhen. There will be a large demand for long-term rental housing in Shenzhen,and the participation mode of enterprises will be more abundant. The Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone has to be fully managed by Shenzhen and will effectively compensate for the shortcomings of Shenzhen’s scarcity of land. The “enclave” effect will gradually emerge.

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    作者简介
    宋博通:宋博通,建筑学科博士后,深圳大学基建部主任,深圳大学房地产研究中心常务副主任,副教授。主要研究领域为住房政策、城市经济与房地产市场。
    古祺:古祺,深圳市前海中证城市管理发展有限公司高级研究员。
    程勇:程勇,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    杨玉竹:杨玉竹,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    曾琴:曾琴,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    黄秀梅:黄秀梅,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    赖如意:赖如意,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    胡荣平:胡荣平,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
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