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    2017年广州市房地产市场分析与2018年展望

    摘要

    2017年,习近平总书记在党的十九大报告中再次指出“坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,让全体人民住有所居”。这将是未来长时期内我国住房政策的根本性指导思想。住房制度改革和长效机制建设,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,体现为2017年围绕供需双侧的限购、限贷及限售政策,叠加一系列监控措施,同时加快供地方式的转变,严防高价地扰乱市场预期,楼价的增幅逐步稳定。2017年,政府在加大调控力度的同时,大力发展住房租赁市场,对房地产行业进行强有力的整顿,在此背景下,广州房地产行业迎来了平稳发展期。展望2018年,政府调控措施、供求双方预期、经济与产业发展,以及轨道交通建设,将是影响广州房地产市场的主要因素。分类调控思想将逐步贯彻到房地产调控中,住房租赁市场将得到进一步发展,信贷面或将继续收紧,房地产市场的主基调仍然是平稳健康发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,President Xi Jinping pointed out the fundamental guiding ideology of China’s housing policy for a long period of time on the 19th People’s Congress. He said that the value of housing is reflected in the provision of shelter for the people and not for the property speculator,the Government should speed up the establishment of a housing system with multiple types of suppliers,multiple channels for housing support,and encouragement for both renting and purchase,so that more people will soon have a place to call home.

    Reforming the housing system and establishing a long-term policy mechanism should continue regard supply-side structural reform as our main task. In 2017,these works include that restrict both sides of supply and demand by policy(on house buying,housing loan and housing exchange),use a series of monitoring procedures,transform the way of land supply faster,prevent the high costs land disrupt the market order and expectations,and ensure the property price increases will be steady. Our government was increased strength control and rapidly development the housing rental market to consolidate the real estate market. Base on this background,Guangzhou real estate industry is steady development.

    Lookahead in 2018,the main factors affecting the real estate market in Guangzhou are government regulation,the different expect from supplier and demander,development on economic and industry,and the last one,transit construction. Category-based regulation over the real estate market will promote the further development of leasing market. The mortgage may will continue be limited. The main tone of Guangzhou real estate market will still be sound and stable.

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    作者简介
    廖俊平:廖俊平,中山大学岭南学院房地产咨询研究中心主任,教授。
    徐斌:徐斌,中山大学南方学院商学院讲师。
    伦嘉升:伦嘉升,广州市广房中协房地产发展研究中心研究员。
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