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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中国文化产业供需协调增长目标——1996~2016年的分析与至2020年测算

    摘要

    检测2016年全国城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间:供需协调性测算29234。43亿元,消除负相关测算38604。41亿元,最佳比例值测算43858。04亿元,最小城乡比测算43883。72亿元,弥合城乡比测算59039。14亿元,城乡无差距测算89097。44亿元,地区无差距测算115870。72亿元,实际总量仅为27013。59亿元。全国城乡文教消费需求相关方面增长差距一目了然:一方面在于经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距;另一方面在于城乡之间、地区之间民生与文化民生增进的均衡性差距。在以上分析的基础上,以消解发展不平衡不充分为最终标的,测算2020年全国文教消费总量增长空间:历年均增值目标41264。23亿元,供需协调性目标56126。22亿元,消除负相关目标63927。69亿元,最佳比例值目标69718。94亿元,最小城乡比目标69309。60亿元,弥合城乡比目标92660。36亿元,城乡无差距目标141633。74亿元,地区无差距目标184016。89亿元。

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    Abstract

    Based upon the growth from 1996 to 2016,and aiming at the target of extended demotic culture and education consumption demand and advanced sharing between urban and rural areas,and among various regions,measuring to the “due space” of the countrywide total culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2016 are as follows:2923.443 billion yuan in the valued coordinated supply-demand;3860.441 billion yuan in the valued avoiding negative correlation;4385.804 billion yuan in the valued optimal proportion;4388.372 billion yuan in the valued lowest urban-rural ratio;5903.914 billion yuan in the valued closed urban-rural ratio;8909.744 billion yuan in the valued without urban-rural gap,11587.072 billion yuan in the valued without regional gap. But the actual gross is only 2701.359 billion yuan. It is clear at a glance which the growth distance with regard to the countrywide culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas had two dimensions:on the one hand,that consist in the harmonious difference of economic increase and basic people's livelihood and cultural people's livelihood enhancement;on the other hand,that consist in the statuesque difference of people's livelihood and cultural people's livelihood enhancement between urban and rural areas,and among various regions. Based upon the above analysis,with the ultimate goal of resolving the unbalanced and inadequate development,the total growth space of the countrywide culture and education consumption to 2020 are estimated as follows:4126.423 billion yuan in the of average added value over the years;5612.622 billion yuan in the growth target of coordinated supply-demand;6392.769 billion yuan in the growth target of avoiding negative correlation;6971.894 billion yuan in the growth target of optimal proportion;6930.960 billion yuan in the growth target of lowest urban-rural ratio;9266.036 billion yuan in the growth target of closed urban-rural ratio;14163.374 billion yuan in the growth target of without urban-rural gap;18401.689 billion yuan in the growth target of without regional gap.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任。
    刘婷:刘婷,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心秘书长。
    方彧:方彧,中国老龄科学研究中心副研究员。
    赵娟:赵娟,云南省社会科学院文化发展研究中心副研究员。
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