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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2017年经济作物生产和市场状况及2018年展望

    摘要

    2017年,棉花、花生和甜菜增产明显,播种面积的增加和单产提高是棉花、花生和甜菜增产的主要原因;三大经济作物的种植集中度进一步提升。棉花和食糖市场价格较2016年有大幅提高,人工成本和土地成本的增加是种植成本上涨的最主要原因。预测未来新疆棉区的棉花生产优势会更加突出,花生产量上行趋势明显,内蒙古和新疆甜菜播种面积会进一步扩大,油菜籽和甘蔗总产量与播种面积下行压力较大;三大经济作物的进口依存度依然较高;棉花和油料作物市场价格有下行压力,食用植物油价格将会上浮,食糖价格仍会在高位运行。

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    Abstract

    The output of cotton,peanut,and beetroots increased obviously in 2017,mainly because of the area expansion and the increase in the yield per unit area. The planting of the three crops mentioned above would further concentrate in 2018. The market price of the three cash crops largely increased compared to that in 2016. The production cost of the three cash crops increased in 2017,mainly because of the increase in the human and land costs. In the future,it is estimated that the advantage of Xinjiang in cotton production will be further prominent;the trend of peanut production is obviously upward;the planting area in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiangwould further expand;the pressure is large on the reduction in the planting area and yield of oil crops and beetroots. The dependence on the import of the three cash crops would be still high. The cotton price would go down with the pressures;the price of oil crops would go up,and the sugar price would still stay at a high level.

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    作者简介
    张瑞娟:张瑞娟,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,研究方向为农产品市场与农业政策。
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