2017年,国家引导调减了粮食种植面积,但得益于气候较好、抗灾有力、种植技术改进等因素,粮食实现小幅增产;随着粮食价格形成机制的不断完善和收储制度改革的不断推进,市场在粮食价格形成中的作用不断增强;由于结构性短缺、国内外价差仍然较大等因素,除了玉米进口下降外,稻谷、小麦、大豆进口都有较大幅度增加。2018年,在相关政策的影响下,中国粮食生产和市场可能呈现一些新的变化。稻谷价格下跌可能性较大,小麦价格可能保持相对稳定,玉米和大豆价格可能有一定幅度波动;稻谷、小麦、玉米产量下降可能性较大,大豆产量可能增加;稻谷、玉米进口压力可能较小,小麦、大豆进口压力可能仍然较大。
<<In 2017,although the planted area of grains reduced under the central government’s guidance,the grain production still increased slightly,mainly because of the suitable weather,effective disaster reduction technical improvement. The role of market had a further important role in the formation of grain prices,with the improvement in the formation mechanism of grain prices and the advancement in the reform of the storage system. The import of rice,wheat,and soybeans increased largely,but corn import decreased,due to the structural shortage and the big difference in the prices between the domestic and international markets. In 2018,the grain production and market will change,under the influence of relevant policies. Firstly,the rice price would probably go down;the wheat price will be relatively stable;and the price of corn and soybeans would probably fluctuate within a certain range. Secondly,the yield of rice might decline;the wheat yield might remain relatively stable,and yield of corn and soybean might rise. Lastly,pressure on the import of rice and corn might be low,but still high on the import of wheat and soybeans.
<<Keywords: | Grain ProductionMarket Operation |