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    2018年公募基金行业发展趋势分析与展望

    摘要

    随着国内经济在“L”形底部逐渐稳定,经济结构不断优化,企业微观层面不断改善,公募基金在2017年整体为客户创造了良好的收益。产品方面,受监管政策影响,债券型基金规模较2016年有较大幅度下降,货币基金规模快速增长。2018年公募基金行业预计将延续“强监管、防风险”的监管思路,监管趋严趋同、政策套利空间不断收紧,短期内对行业的发展提出挑战,但也将不断推动行业回归本源。同时,Fintech的兴起、FOF基金获批、养老金窗口打开,也为行业的未来发展打开了新的想象空间。

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    Abstract

    As the domestic economy gradually stabilized,the economic structure and the enterprises conduction are optimizing constantly on both macro and micro level,while the mutual funds generally had delivered solid earnings for their clients in 2017.Due to the regulatory reasons,the size of bond funds has declined significantly comparing with 2016,while the size of money market funds has been growing rapidly.For 2018,we hold the opinion that the industry will continued the regulatory path of “strong supervision and risk prevention” and the space for regulatory arbitrage will be tightening even more,which may pose challenges for the industry in short term,but also will push the industry to return to its origin of active management.Meanwhile,the rise of Fintech,the approval of FOF funds,and the progressive development of elder-care and pension funds,all have opened up new imagination spaces for the mutual funds industry in 2018.

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    作者简介
    陆筱薇:金融学学士,法律硕士,国泰基金管理有限公司助理研究员
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