2018年,全球经济和赢利继续同步复苏将是主基调,支撑增长延续的主要动力有望来自私人部门投资的强劲增长。需求向好下大宗商品价格和通胀水平有望回升,贸易投资增长持续但趋势放缓。与此对应的是,全球主要经济体的宽松货币政策将进一步退出,财政政策登上舞台,国际金融市场动荡不定,全球产业竞争力格局出现新变化。2018年经济形势面临一些不确定性因素,诸如贸易投资保护、地缘政治冲突以及其他非经济性风险等,需警惕“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”事件发生。
<<The global economy will continue to recover in 2018.The main force that sustains economic growth is private sector investment.With strong global demand,commodities prices are expected to increase,so is the level of inflation.Investment in global trade will continue to grow moderately.Accordingly,major economies will end their Q.E.monetary policy,using fiscal policy instead.International financial market might be unstable,which would bring change in global industrial competitiveness.Some unpredictable factors might take effect in 2018,including trade investment protection,geopolitical conflicts,and other noneconomic risks.We should also be cautious about Grey Rhinoor Black Swan events.
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