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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2018年中国投资市场分析与展望

    摘要

    2017年全球经济复苏,中国经济结束了连续七年的下滑,实现了6。9%的增幅。中国A股市场IPO领跑全球,主要指数表现分化,权重股类指数领涨。中国债券市场全年低迷,房地产市场进入调整阶段,但全国商品房交易量增长。大宗商品整体处于上涨格局,银行理财和信托产品收益触底反弹,私募股权投资行业洗牌的迹象加剧。展望2018年,世界经济环境有望继续改善,全球经济继续保持良好复苏态势。中央经济工作会议确定2018年经济工作的总基调依然是稳中求进,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,重点打好“防范化解重大风险”、“精准脱贫”和“污染防治”三大攻坚战。在金融防风险和严监管的背景下,各类资产很难形成趋势性机会。2018年整体的大类资产配置思路应是坚持价值投资理念,紧跟国家政策动向,寻找收益确定性较高的资产,避开高估值风险资产。

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    Abstract

    The global economic recovery in 2017.China's economy has ended seven consecutive years of decline.China's GDP has achieved a 6.9% increase.China's A share market IPO led the world,the main index showed differentiation,the weight share index led the rise.The Chinese bond market is sluggish throughout the year.China's real estate market has entered a period of adjustment,but the volume of commercial housing in the country has increased.The overall commodity is in a rising pattern.Bank finance and trust products rebounded.Signs of shuffling in the private equity sector have intensified.Looking forward to 2018,the world economic environment is expected to continue to improve,and the global economy continues to maintain a good recovery.In 2018,the overall tone of China economic work is still in progress while maintaining stability,supply side structural reform as the main line,focus on playing well “to prevent and resolve major risks” and “accurate poverty” and “pollution control” three battle.Under the background of financial risk prevention and strict supervision,it is difficult for all kinds of assets to form a trend of opportunity.The overall arrangement of 2018 should adhere to the concept of value investment.Investors should pay attention to changes in national policies.Investors should look for assets with higher income certainty and avoid overvalued risk assets.

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    作者简介
    张志前:张志前,博士,研究员,中国建投投资研究院副秘书长
    马天月:马天月,中国建投投资研究院博士后
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