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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2017~2018年奉贤房地产发展形势分析与研判

    摘要

    2016年,奉贤区住宅成交价格在“去库存”的大背景下经历了新一轮的快速上涨,住宅成交均价32972元,是2015年13655元的2。4倍。面对房地产市场明显过热的现象,习近平总书记在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”定位,加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,让全体人民住有所居。在这一轮房地产市场调控中,奉贤区政府牢牢把握“控风险”这个主题,坚持主张“去库存”的政策基调,分类调控,有的放矢,有效地控制了房地产增加值占GDP的比重,优化了房地产市场的结构。在研究奉贤区房地产市场2007年至2017年过去多年数据的基础上,本章分析房地产投资和发展的走势,预测2018年的房地产市场将进入一段理性调整期。但是,当房地产市场调整结束后,总体上仍是增长的趋势。

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    Abstract

    In 2016,the transaction price of residential house in Fengxian District experienced a new round of rapid increase under the background of “de-inventory”.The average price of residential house was 32,972 yuan,which was 2.4 times that of 13,655 yuan in 2015.In the face of overheating phenomenon of the real estate market,Xi Jinping,General Secretary the CPC Central Committee,insists in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that “the house is used to live,not to resell for profit” and we should speed up the establishment of a multi-agent supply and multi-channel security,hire purchase and rent housing system,and let all the people have house to live in.In this round of the real estate market regulation,the Fengxian District government firmly grasp the theme of “control risk”,insists “de-inventory” to classify regulation,and effectively control the added value of real estate as a share of GDP to optimize the structure of the real estate market.This repont studies the real estate market from 2007 to 2017,analyzes the real estate investment and development trends,forecasts that the real estate market will enter into a rational adjustment in 2018.However,after the real estate market adjustment,the overall trend will still be up.

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    作者简介
    谢婼青:谢婼青,上海社会科学院经济研究所西方经济学博士研究生,主要研究方向为计量经济建模与经济决策分析。
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