进入21世纪以来,海洋经济日益成为国民经济新的增长源,因此加强对海洋经济形势的分析和预测对于促进海洋经济的发展,编制海洋经济计划和制定海洋政策措施有着重要的理论和实践意义。目前我国海洋产业主要发展趋势是生产总值稳步上升,产业结构不断优化。本文主要对中国主要海洋产业海洋渔业等的发展形势进行分析,分析发展现状和制约因素,运用灰色预测法、指数平滑法等实证方法和模型对海洋产业发展前景做出预测。之后对主要海洋产业细分的传统海洋产业和新兴海洋产业进行分析,预测认为未来几年中国主要海洋产业将保持迅速增长态势。
<<Since the 21st century, marine economy has increasingly become a new source of growth for the national economy. Therefore, strengthening the analysis and forecast of the marine economic situation has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the development of marine economy, compiling marine economic plans and formulating marine policies and measures.Ocean industry in China rise steady, industrial structure optimize increasingly. This article mainly analyzes the development situation of China's major ocean industries, the present situation and restricting factors.Based on the grey prediction method and exponential smoothing method, the paper predicts the development prospect of Marine industry. Then analyse the traditional Marine industries and newly emerging Marine industry, they will maintain rapid growth in next few years.
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