Based on the 2015 elderly population data from the “Shanghai Actual Population Information Administration System”，and taking population flowing and migration into account，this project gives a prediction of the Shanghai permanent elderly residents between the year 2016 and the year 2030.This population prediction is targeted at simulating the general development trends of Shanghai permanent residents，and on this basis，studying the changes in the number of elderly population，population structure，and the impact they exert on the socioeconomic development.The prediction result shows that：the elderly population will continue to grow in a unilateral upward trend until the year 2030.The elderly population is predicted to reach 5.77 million by the year 2020，and will exceed 6.5 million by the year 2030.In addition，this report analyzes the influence between the aging population and the socioeconomic development，and proposes the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.