近年来,宏观环境的变化使得我国农民工数量的年增长率有所下降,对于上海而言,影响非户籍人口规模变动的因素除了全国可转移农业劳动力减少、产业梯度转移、上海迁移吸引力下降外,可能还包括深化户籍制度改革所带来的人口调控。自2014年上海人口调控各项措施实施以来,非户籍人口规模的年增长率大大低于全国平均水平,2015年甚至出现了负增长。在这个过程中,非户籍人口群体特征也发生了变化,特别是劳动年龄的非户籍人口,主要表现为规模增长停滞、较高年龄组人口比例上升、受教育水平提高、行业职业结构变化、正规就业水平上升、收入水平上升的同时个体差异缩小等。这些特征变动在一定程度上可以看作人口调控政策带来的效果。
<<In recent years,the migrant workers scale grew much slower during the macro circumstancechanged.For Shanghai,the situation was more complex.The influence factors included not only fewer transferable agriculture labor force,less attractive to no-registered labor force,industrial gradient transfer,but also population control policies which is the important measures of household registration reform.Since the implementation of Shanghai population control measures in 2014,the annual growth rate of no-household population scale is significantly lower than the national average,and even negative growth in 2015.During these years,the no- household population group characteristics also changed,especially the no-household population of working age.These changes included:the no-household populationslower growth,the increase of proportion of the elderly population,the increase of education level,the change of occupation structure,the increase of formal employment level,the increase of income levels and the reduce of the individual differences.To some extent,these characteristics can be regarded as the effect of population control policy.
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