基于上海2017年前三季度宏观经济数据,笔者对其经济总量和结构性指标变量进行分析,总结得出2017年以来上海宏观经济运行呈现如下特征:经济总量稳步提升,经济结构基本稳定;三大需求齐发力,经济增长动能多元化;企业、政府、居民各得其所,经济效率持续改善。结合国内外宏观经济形势,本文通过景气分析和情景分析方法,建立宏观经济计量模型,预测上海2017年经济增速与2016年持平的概率较大,2018年处于基准情景的概率为72。5%,其经济增速保持在6。9%的水平。针对当前和未来一段时间上海面临的内外部环境,本文提出要紧紧围绕“四个稳定”综合施策来强化“稳中求进”,围绕“三个推进”夯实经济基础,持续推动技术创新和制度创新。
<<Based on macroeconomic data of Shanghai before and in 2017,we analyzede the aggregate and structural economic index variable,concluded Shanghai's macro economy in 2017 had the following characteristics:macro economy was rising persistently,economic structure was basically stable;The three demands were in force,and the economic growth energy was diversified;The economic efficiency continued to improve and every subject got their own profit.Combining domestic and foreign macroeconomic situation,we expected that the Shanghai economy will be operating on the same level 2017 with last year.The probability of being in the benchmark stale in 2018 is 72.5 percent,and the growth rate will be at 6.7 percent.Under the present and future circumstances,Shanghai need to insist on “four stability”,strengthening “making progress while maontaomong stability”,focusing on “three promoting” to reinforce economic foundations,and continuously promoting technological and institutional innovation.
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