2015年,广东服务业利用外商直接投资比重达到56。92%,并首度超过第二产业,成为广东利用外资最多的产业,广东产业“三二一”的利用外资结构正式形成,反映了广东产业结构和外资结构不断转型升级的良好局面。外商直接投资对广东服务业劳工就业产生深远影响,并且这种影响在短期和长期存在一定的差异。本文剖析服务业外商直接投资影响劳工就业的作用机理,分析广东服务业外商直接投资以及服务业劳工市场的发展特征,并利用1986~2015年相关数据对广东服务业外商直接投资与劳工就业的关系进行经验研究。本文研究结果表明:广东服务业外商直接投资对服务业劳工就业产生的总效应为微弱负效应,广义脉冲响应函数显示广东服务业外商直接投资短期对劳工就业产生消极效应,但度过这段“阵痛期”后,服务业外商直接投资将对劳工就业带来积极的长期效应。
<<In 2015,the proportion of Guangdong services industry using FDI reached 56.92%,which surpasses the second industry the first time,and becomes the top of utilization of foreign capital in Guangdong. The formally form of “Third-Second-First” foreign capital utilization structure reflects the transformation and upgrading of industry structure of Guangdong,and reflects Guangdong’s structure of foreign investment is in good situation. Services FDI has profound influences on Guangdong’s services employment market,and there are some differences of the influences between the short-run and the long-run. This paper decomposes the mechanism of the employment effects caused by services FDI,and analyzes the development characteristics of services FDI and the services employment market in Guangdong,and makes an empirical research on the employment effects caused by services FDI,using relevant data from 1986-2015. The result of the research indicates that the total employment effects that services FDI brings to services employment market is weak negative,generalized impulse response function shows that services FDI produces negative short-run employment effects,but after this short period of “Growing Pains”,positive long-run employment effects will appear.
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