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    局部动荡起伏 大国博弈加剧——2016年国际军事形势分析

    摘要

    2016年是国际局势发生重要转折的年份,重大事变明显增多,国际军事形势发展变化中的不确定性趋向上升。主要大国注重获取军事优势,加快战略调整,其中应对传统安全领域的挑战仍然占有重要位置,美俄尤其侧重防范大国战略竞争及其潜在冲突。随着新型领域科技装备的快速发展,世界军事革命的新一轮浪潮正在到来,新型领域已经成为军事斗争的重要空间和新疆域,围绕新型领域大国展开日趋激烈的战略博弈。军事冲突向政治、经济领域扩散和渗透的效应日益明显,这种外溢效应在中东和欧洲地区的冲突中表现得尤为突出。当前国际体系正在经历重大的历史变迁,国际力量结构和国际关系的性质均在发生重大变化,原有的秩序已显露出疲态甚至是危机重重,已经不可能为世界各国的安全和繁荣提供必要的条件和足够广泛的空间,而且这一变化至今也没有显示出积极明朗的前景。在变动的世界中,即使是主要国家也需要重新界定自己的地位,国家间关系更加复杂,世界局势虽然能够保持总体上的动态平衡,但同时也呈现出到处充满矛盾、动荡乃至冲突的特征。

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    Abstract

    The year 2016 is an eventful year as well as an important turning point in the world order. The uncertainty about international military dynamics is rising. The major powers are speeding up strategic adjustment in a bid to gain military superiority over others. Tackling traditional security issues remains top of the agenda. Both the United States and Russia put priority on addressing strategic competition and potential conflicts between great powers. The rapid development of technology and equipment is ushering in a new round of worldwide military revolution. New sectors have become an important ground for military contestation. The great power game in new sectors is all fired up. The spillover effects of military conflicts on politics and economy is becoming more and more obvious,especially in the case of conflicts between the Middle East and Europe. The international system and its structure and the nature of international relations are undergoing major changes. The old world order is defunct and collapsing,unable to provide states with security and prosperity and not going to take a turn for the better. In the transition period,all countries,even the major powers,need to redefine their status. The relationship between countries is more complex. Although the world system at large is in a state of dynamic balance,it is also enmeshed in conflicts,disputes and turbulence.

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    作者简介
    唐永胜:唐永胜,国防大学战略教研部副主任,教授,研究方向为国家安全战略、国际战略
    李薇:李薇,国防大学博士研究生,研究方向为国家安全战略。
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