本文依据黄淮海平原366户家庭农场的实地调研数据,在全域Moran'sI检验的基础上,构建贝叶斯空间杜宾Probit模型,设定合适的空间权重矩阵,从中选择最优模型进行参数估计,并借助偏微分方法,分解特征变量对家庭农场绿色防控技术(GCT)采纳行为的直接效应和空间溢出效应。研究发现:相邻家庭农场绿色防控技术采纳行为存在空间相关性,其地理分布具有空间集聚特征;家庭农场相距2。0千米以内时,其绿色防控技术采纳行为的空间依赖性最强;农场主的受教育程度和风险偏好程度、家庭资金状况和劳动力数量、对绿色防控技术和化学农药危害的认知程度、从媒体获取信息的程度、是否认识已采纳GCT的农场主和是否参与技术培训的情况显著正向影响家庭农场的GCT采纳行为;家庭农场的GCT采纳行为主要受其特征变量的直接影响,但邻近家庭农场特征变量的空间溢出效应也不容忽视,尤其是邻近家庭农场的参与技术培训情况、劳动力数量和资金状况。
<<Using field research data of 366 family farms in Huang-huai-hai Plain,based on global Moran's I test,the Bayesian spatial Durbin probit model was developed,a spatial weight matrix was constructed,and the optimal model for estimating parameters was selected.Direct effects and spatial spillover effects of characteristic variables on family farms' adoption behavior of green control technique(GCT)were determined by using partial differential method.Results show that GCT adoption behaviors of adjacent family farms have a spatial correlation,and their geographic distribution is spatially clustered.When family farms are within a 2.0 km distance,their GCT adoption behaviors have strong spatial dependence.Education level and risk preference degree,fund status and number of laborers,cognition degree on GCT and the dangers of chemical pesticide use,strength of media publicity,know GCT adopters,and participation in technique training of family farms have significant positive effects on their GCT adoption behavior.The GCT adoption behaviors of family farms are mainly influenced by direct effects of their characteristic variables.However,the spatial spillover effects of neighbor family farms' characteristic variables,especially their participation in technique training,number of laborers,and fund status,cannot be ignored.
<<Keywords: | Family FarmHuang-Huai-Hai PlainGreen Control TechniqueSpatial Spillover EffectBayesian Spatial Durbin Probit Model |