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为识别小农户生猪粪污处理不当诱发的空气污染风险、水体污染风险、土壤污染风险等环境风险，本文利用层次分析法建立指标体系，分别于2016年1月即国家“水十条”颁布的10个月后和2017年2月即国家“土十条”颁布的9个月后，对同样的11位业内专家采用模糊决策实验室法（FuzzyDEMATEL）和投影寻踪法进行评判。结果表明，两次专家评判认为小农户生猪粪污处理不当诱发的空气污染风险、水体污染风险、土壤污染风险权重分别是0。2424、0。3646、0。3930和0。2377、0。4485、0。3138。两次评判均认为空气污染风险最小，而由于“水十条”和“土十条”存在短暂、即时的政策效应，专家对水体污染风险和土壤污染风险的评判出现了分歧。本文据此给出政策建议。
<<To identify the environmental risk including air，water and soil pollution risk of small holders inappropriate treatment to pigs manure，after the construction of index system by Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP），the paper took the method of fuzzy DEMATEL and Projection Pursuit of the same 11 experts and experiments were conducted respectively in January，2016（ten months after“Water Ten Chapters”promulgation）and February，2017（nine months after“Soil Ten Chapters”promulgation）.The results showed that the weight of air pollution risk，water pollution risk，soil pollution risk in two judgments were 0.2424，0.3646，0.3930 and 0.2377，0.4485，0.3138.Experts reached the consensus that air pollution risk took up the smallest weight.But they had different opinions about water pollution risk weight and soil pollution risk weight due to the instant policy effect of“Water Ten Chapters”and“Soil Ten Chapters”.Several suggestions were given based on the results.
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