2017年中国大宗商品市场呈现整体升温态势,宏观经济向好。消费需求显著增长,需求拉动效果明显。供需关系改善与成本增加双重推动了全国大宗商品资源供应提速。市场价格上涨推动行业利润水平成倍增加。预计,2018年内大宗商品市场指标将会出现全面回落,但中国大宗商品市场依然保持巨大的体量规模。受其影响,中国大宗商品将由牛市行情转为“慢牛”格局,本文对于市场的整体判断,亦由“乐观”调整为“谨慎乐观”。
<<In 2017,the overall commodity market in China presents an overall warming trend with a positivemacroeconomic outlook. Significant growth in consumer demand,demand-pull effect is obvious. The improvement of supply and demand and the increase of costs have doubled the commodity supply. Due to the rise in market prices,industry profit levels doubled. It is estimated that there will be a complete drop in the commodity market indicators in 2018,but the commodity market in China still maintains a huge scale of mass production. As a result,commodities market will change from the bull market into a moderate pattern. This paper revise the overall market judgment from ‘optimistic’ to ‘cautiously optimistic’.
<<Keywords: | ChinaCommodity MarketDemand-driven |