2012年中国经济进入新常态以来,经济增长结构性减速,以货币供给驱动资本形成推动GDP增长的目标越来越难以实现。基础货币供给的基础资产发生了根本性变化,从长期的外汇资产转为为金融机构流动性服务的短期资产,意味着“脱实向虚”从基础货币供给就有根源性特征。本文通过对经济增长与货币供给阶段性变化的经验、逻辑和体制安排进行梳理,分析货币供给机制的基础性变化特征,探索开放格局下经济增长与货币供给的新关系和面临的挑战,发现在新常态下重新设计财政和金融体制已经不是一个简单的单项问题,需要重新设立适应新常态的财政金融体制。
<<Since China’s economy entered a new normal in 2012,the economic growth has been slowed down structurally,and the goal of GDP growth by increasing capital supply to promote capital formation has become increasingly difficult to achieve. Fundamental changes have taken place in the basic assets of the basic money supply,from long-term assets of foreign exchange to short-term assets serving financial liquidity. It means that ‘off real to virtual’ has the root characteristics in the base money supply. This paper reviews the experience,logic and institutional arrangement of the economic growth and the periodic changes of money supply,analyzes the basic changes of the money supply mechanism,and explores the new relationship and challenge between the economic growth and the money supply under the open pattern. The redesign of the financial and banking system is not a simple issue,which requires to be adaptable to the new normal circumstances.
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