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    2016~2017年澳大利亚发展回顾与展望

    摘要

    2016~2017年澳大利亚仍处在调整期,其中产业调整处于关键的升级阶段,然而2016年大选出现的弱势政府难以为此提供社会、政治和经济的有力支持,导致社会发展放缓,其国内政治支持率下降。外交白皮书的发表没能为澳大利亚国际定位提供明确的路线图。美国以自身为中心,中国要求国际社会更加开放与国际化,使澳大利亚只能笼统地坚持以西方为主的价值和体系,这与地区的发展方向和澳大利亚的国家利益并不完全吻合。因此,澳大利亚的战略犹豫期已经过了在中美之间的选择中两边收益的阶段。未来澳大利亚关注的重点将是经济和政治领域。

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    Abstract

    Australia is still in the process of overall restructuring in 2016-2017,of which the industrial restructuring is at the critical upgrading stage,but the slim majority Coalition government after the 2016 election has faced difficulties in providing the social,political and economic support needed,thus resulting in an economic downturn and a fall of domestic political support. Though the overall current situation in Australia is stable and the recent development is quite certain,but the Coalition parties do not improve much and domestic political debate and strife will intensify. The release of the Foreign Policy White Paper has systemized the current government’s foreign and security strategies,but the White Paper has been unable to provide a clear road map for Australia to take its international position. Australia has to vaguely stick to the Western-centred values and systems between the self-centred US and the more open and globalized China and this does not fully match the regional development and Australia’s national interests. Therefore,the time for Australia to benefit from its strategic hesitation in choosing between the US and China has been over,making Australia more difficult in balancing the relations and frequently in a situation of gains and losses at the same time and even sometimes offending both the US and China. Domestic economy and politics in Australia will be the focus of attention until the next federal election in 2019.

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    Keywords:
    作者简介
    韩锋:韩锋,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员,北京外国语大学特聘教授,中国澳大利亚研究会前会长(2010~2016),主要研究领域为亚洲太平洋地区的国际关系和安全关系、澳大利亚和新西兰的政治与外交。
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