石油价格回升和地区政治安全局势趋稳是2016年推动西亚北非地区经济向好的主要因素。预计2017年西亚北非地区经济增长动力减弱,下行压力主要来自地缘政治紧张局势和冲突加剧、石油价格上涨低于预期、财政整顿影响公共支出等方面。撒哈拉以南非洲地区受大宗商品价格低迷以及尼日利亚、南非等地区大国表现不佳等因素影响,经济增长在2016年急剧减速。预计撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济增长2017年有所加强。主要有利因素是全球商品价格的回升,安哥拉和尼日利亚等国经济走势改善以及结构性改革带动部分经济体国内条件改善;主要的风险来自某些发达经济体政策不确定性提高、大宗商品价格上涨低于预期以及结构性改革推进不畅。
<<The rebound of oil prices and the stabilization of regional political security are two major factors that stimulated the economic growth of the area of West Asia and North Africa in 2016.The economic growth momentum of West Asia and North Africa will be weakened in 2017,with downward pressure mainly from intensified geopolitical tensions and conflict,oil prices lower than expected,and negative effects of fiscal consolidation on public expenditure. The economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa had experienced a sharp slowdown in 2016,as the result of weak commodity prices,poor performance of Nigeria and South Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2017 will be much stronger than that in 2016. The main favorable factors include rebounded global commodity prices,improved performance of Angola and Nigeria,and better domestic economies conditions in some countries as result of structural reforms. The main risks come from policy uncertainty of some developed economies,commodity prices lower than expected,and blocked structural reform.
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