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谢伏瞻
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    “一带一路”沿线国家气候风险评估及对策建议

    摘要

    “一带一路”沿线国家气候类型复杂多样,全球变暖背景下沿线国家极端天气气候事件频发,高温热浪、暴雨洪涝、沿岸洪水、台风、干旱等天气和气候有关的灾害频繁。“一带一路”沿线主要国家的气候风险普遍偏高、灾害损失重,南亚和东南亚地区尤为突出。预估分析表明,“一带一路”沿线国家未来极端气候事件发生的频率和强度均将增加。积极应对气候及极端天气气候事件变化对“一带一路”沿线国家人类和自然系统所造成的可能影响,科学管理沿线国家面临的气候灾害风险,提升适应气候变化和防灾减灾综合能力,为实施“一带一路”国际合作行动和实现区域可持续发展提供科技支撑信息。

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    Abstract

    Heat waves,storms,coastal floods,typhoons,drought and other weather and climate-related disasters occurred frequently along the Belt and Road region,under the background of global warming,with complex and diverse climate types. The climate risks in major countries along the Belt and Road region are generally high,countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia most affected. Projection results from the Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project show that the frequency and intensity of future extreme climate events along the Belt and Road region will further increase. In order to actively respond to the possible impact of changes in climate and extreme weather and climate events on the human and natural systems along the Belt and Road region,scientifically manage the climate disaster risks faced by most countries,enhance the comprehensive capacity to adapt to climate change and disaster prevention and mitigation,several response solutions are given at the end,to provide scientific and technical support information for the international cooperative actions along the Belt and Road region and the achievement of regional sustainable development.

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    作者简介
    王朋岭:王朋岭,国家气候中心高级工程师,研究领域为气候变化及区域气候环境演变。
    周波涛:周波涛,国家气候中心气候变化室主任、研究员,研究领域为气候变化、东亚气候变异及机理。
    徐影:徐影,国家气候中心研究员,研究领域为气候变化情景预估。
    许红梅:许红梅,国家气候中心研究员,主要研究领域为气候变化影响评估。
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