为考量中国能源农业的资源潜力,本研究在中国能源资源供需现状及能源农业生产现状分析的基础上,采用综合预测方法,对中国能源农业的资源潜量进行了预测。结果表明,到2020年、2025年、2030年,中国能源需求缺口将分别达到88941万吨、108843万吨和128746万吨标准煤,能源农业预计能分别供给生物质能源75735万吨、82997万吨、90359万吨标准煤,分别能满足85%、76%、70%的能源需求缺口。最后,本文从大力发展种植业、充分利用林木生物质废弃物、加快能源植物的开发利用、加快推进能源农业产业链的构建和加快培育生物质能源产业市场环境等五个方面提出对策建议。
<<In order to consider the potential of energy agriculture,on the basis of the analysis of the current situation of energy resources supply and demand and of energy agricultural production,resource potential of energy agriculture are predicted by the comprehensive prediction method in China.The results show that by 2020,2025,2030,the gap of China’s energy demand will reach 889,410 thousand tons,1088430 thousand tons and 1287460 thousand tons of standard coal,and energy agriculture is expected to supply 757350 thousand tons,829970 thousand tons and 903590 thousand tons of standard coal,which can meet the energy demand gap of 70%,76%and 85%.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from six aspects,which are vigorously developing the planting,making full use of forest biomass waste,speeding up the development and utilization of energy plants,accelerating the construction of energy agriculture industry chain and speeding up the cultivation of biomass energy industry market environment.
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