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    当前加拿大经济发展态势

    • 作者:Geoffrey McCormack出版日期:2017年09月
    • 报告大小:2.28MB
    • 报告字数:23700 字所属丛书:加拿大蓝皮书
    • 所属图书:加拿大发展报告(2017)

    摘要

    由于经济危机前长期稳健的盈利能力和资本积累,加拿大经济经受住了2008~2009年经济大衰退的考验,表现优于其他国家。自2014年以来,尽管企业的现金储备不断增加,但其盈利能力不断下降,债务水平也不断上升。同时,家庭债务也不断增长。这些趋势都给国家的金融体系和整体经济带来越来越大的风险。其中石油和天然气是最不稳定的领域。全球经济衰退和化石燃料供应过剩导致石油价格下跌,对石油工业的盈利能力产生了负面影响,其结果是经济增长乏力。因此,特鲁多政府加大努力将本国石油推向市场,并与国际社会寻求多边合作以促进经济增长,其中包括与欧盟签订全面的经济贸易协议,并宣布有意加入亚洲基础设施投资银行。与此同时,特鲁多政府致力于提高国内基础设施投资力度,实现其选举承诺。加拿大银行也持续保持低利率来刺激经济活动。然而,在经济增长缓慢和低息贷款的背景下,房地产市场泡沫的风险越来越大。联邦政府试图通过收紧房贷政策来控制风险。基于上述种种原因,尽管特鲁多政府付出诸多努力,但加拿大的经济前景依然未卜。

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    Abstract

    The Canadian economy weathered the Great Recession of 2008-09 better than its peers owing to a long period of robust profitability and capital accumulation preceding the crisis.Since 2014,however,business profitability has declined and corporate debt levels have risen,despite growing corporate cash hoards.Households,too,have experienced growing debts.These trends pose an increasing risk to the country's financial system and broader economy.The epicenter of this instability is the oil and gas sector.The global slump and the oversupply of fossil fuels occasioned falling oil prices and these have impacted negatively the profitability of the oil industry.The result has been sluggish economic growth.In light of this,the Canadian state under the Trudeau administration has intensified its efforts to get crude oil to market.It has also pursued multilateral engagements with the international community to boost economic growth,which included the signing of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the EU and by announcing its intention to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.At the same time,the Trudeau government is committed to increasing infrastructure spending domestically,following election promises.The Bank of Canada,too,has kept interest rates low to stoke economic activity.In the context of slow growth and cheap money,however,there is a growing risk of a housing market bubble.The federal government has attempted to offset this risk by tightening mortgage lending rules.For all of the above reasons,the future of the Canadian economy is uncertain in spite of the attempts of the Trudeau administration.

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    Keywords: EconomyCanadaTrudeau
    作者简介
    Geoffrey McCormack:
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