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    经济弱复苏与监管严加码下的债市博弈

    摘要

    2016年,在国内金融强监管趋严、海外“黑天鹅”事件频发、美联储加息带动全球货币收紧多重背景下,中国债券市场走势跌宕起伏。海内外利空多于利好,我国债市以牛市开局,快熊收官,其间震荡上行为主。同业存单发行大幅扩张,加剧资金空转及市场流动性风险,监管逐步趋严。积极财政政策作为稳增长、调结构的重要抓手,国债、地方债发行亦显著扩张。此外,金融债发行放量,公司债发行翻番,可交换债、可转债发行超两番,但在2016年股债双杀背景下,转债市场最终以下跌超过10%惨淡收官。最后,报告通过回顾近十年的债市走势发现,除经济基本面、货币政策、金融监管以及流动性影响外,在人民币汇率、中美国债利差趋稳下,我国债市利率受美债影响越来越大,呈现“短期分分合合,长期走势一致”的态势。

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    Abstract

    In 2016,in the multiple backgrounds like increasingly strict domestic financial supervision,frequent overseas“black swan”events and interest rate rise of FED,the Chinese bond market was in ups and downs.There were bear markets more than bull markets overseas and Chinese exchange always started from a bull market and then quickly ended up with a bear market with shock upstream during the period.Interbank deposits issued showed a substantial expansion so as to increase capital vacancy and market liquidity risk and cause increasingly stringent supervision.In such context,the positive fiscal policy acted as an important tool for stabilizing growth and adjusting structure and the scale of the bonds issued by the central government and local governments are expanded remarkably.In addition,the issue of the financing securities was increased,the issue of the corporate bonds was doubled and the issue of exchangeable bonds and the convertible bonds was far quadrupled.However,in the background of downturn of stock market and bond market in 2016,the convertible bond market ended up with a fall of over 10%.Finally,by reviewing the trend of the bond market in the past decade,the report concludes that,in addition to the influence of economic fundamentals,monetary policy,financial regulations and liquidity,the interest rate of China's bond market is more and more affected by the US debt in the increasingly stable exchange rate of Renminbi and becomingly steady difference of interest rate between Chinese bonds and US debts,showing a trend of“sometimes overlapping and sometimes separating in a short term,but tending to consistent in a long term”.

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    作者简介
    黄胤英:黄胤英,中国农业银行总行资产管理部高级投资经理,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
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