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谢伏瞻
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    弱复苏与严监管:信用收缩下的“安全价值”

    摘要

    2016年以来,中国经济在供给侧结构性改革和宏观政策刺激牵引下实现弱复苏,突出表现在经济增长率稳中有升,PPI价格指数转正,工业企业经营大幅改善,消费和服务业支撑经济韧性提高四方面。同时,国家持续推出一系列严监管措施,降低金融领域杠杆率,确定金融创新边界,防止资金脱实向虚,为资本市场健康发展和其服务经济发展与转型奠定基础。从统计分析看,与弱复苏同步,2016年上市公司业绩也实现了稳定增长,价值创造能力有了一定提升,特别是创业板和中小板市场与主板市场的差异化表现越发明显。进一步的,通过漂亮100资产配置组合也可以发现,反映新行业、新技术和新业态的上市公司行业集中度和估值水平都有提高,漂亮100行业分布与美股、港股估值较高资产行业分布具有一定的类似性,说明投资者对新行业、新技术和新业态上市公司的认可,安全资产受到追捧,有利于中国经济在转型中实现稳中求进。但从中国整体资本市场看,国有银行、采掘等行业估值仍然占据最高比重,需要警惕在强监管背景下信用收缩对传统行业上市公司成长造成冲击,进而影响宏观经济的健康运行。

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    Abstract

    Since 2016,Chinese economy has realized weak recovery driven by supply side structural reform and macro-economic incentive,remarkably reflected on the steadily rising economy,positive PPI price index,vigorously improved industry and enhanced economic strength supported by consumptions and services.At the same time,the government has introduced a series of strict regulatory measures to reduce the leverage ratio in the financial sector,to determine the boundaries of financial innovation,prevent the finance out of reality and lay the foundation for the healthy development of capital market and its economic development and transformation of the financial services.According to the statistical analysis,together with the weak recovery,in 2016 the performance of the listed companies has also achieved steady growth with growth of value creation to a certain extent,especially reflected in the increasingly differentiated performances between GEM and SME market as well as the main board market.Furthermore,the Pretty 100 Portfolio can also reflect the improvement of the industrial concentration and evaluation level of the listed companies involving new industry,new technology and new layout.The industrial distribution of the Pretty 100 is similar to that of the assets with very high evaluation among the stocks of US and HK,indicating that investors recognize the new industry,new technology and new layout,that secure assets become more popular and China's economy is moderate in progress during the transition.However,in the view of the whole capital market in China,the value of state-owned banks,mining and some other industries still accounts for the biggest proportion,so we should be vigilant and prevent the impact of credit crunch on the growth of listed companies of the traditional industries in the context of strong supervision and further on the healthy operation of the macro economy.

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    作者简介
    张平:张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员,教授,博士生导师,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心主任,中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室副主任
    张鹏:张鹏,中国社会科学院经济研究所博士,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
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