科普人才发展是衡量一个国家科普水平的重要标志。本文讨论了科普人才评估与预测问题,在现有研究的基础上构建了一个科普人才评估预测模型对2006~2014年科普人才发展情况做出评估,并对2020年科普人才发展情况进行预测。结果表明构建的评估预测模型可行有效。
<<The development of science popularity personnel is an important symbol measuring all countries’ level of science popularity. It is of great significance to evaluate and forecast the development of science popularity personnel. This paper researches evaluations,forecastsproblems about science popularity personnel,and constructs an assessment-forecast model to science popularity personnel based on the existing research. This model mainly consists of the evaluation algorithm about science popularity personnel on the basis of normal distributions’ dominance degree and forecast algorithm about science popularity personnel based on time series,whose features are the evaluation method which deals with a large number of public evaluation data and the connection between evaluation and forecast. This model is used to assess science popularity personnel’s development from 2006 to 2014 and forecasts the development ofscience popularity personnel until 2020,which indicates the assessment-forecast model is feasible and effective.
<<Keywords: | ForecastEvaluateTime SeriesScience Popularity PersonnelMulti-attribute Decision-makingDominance Degree |