随着工业化、城镇化的不断推进,城市建设用地规模不断扩大,由此引发的农业用地锐减、环境恶化、土地非集约利用等现象饱受诟病。2009年《江苏沿海地区发展规划》颁布以后,江苏沿海地区的发展迈入快车道。在此情况下,合理控制建设用地的扩张规模,科学制定土地利用规划以保证建设用地的节约、集约利用已成当务之急。本文采用2011~2015年江苏沿海三市23个区县的面板数据,以城市建设用地扩张速度为指标,利用高斯Kernel密度估计、基尼系数分解及Markov链等方法,详细分析了江苏沿海城市建设用地扩张的空间差异及动态演化特征。通过研究得出以下结论。①江苏沿海城市建设用地扩张总体趋缓,内部差异逐步缩小,出现两极分化;南通、连云港、盐城三市内部建设用地扩张的特征不尽相同,但基本呈现“南高北低”的发展态势。②江苏沿海城市建设用地的总体基尼系数先降后升;区域内基尼系数呈连云港、盐城、南通依次降低态势;区域间基尼系数不断变化,其中南通-连云港差异最大;超变密度是江苏沿海城市建设用地扩张空间差异的主要原因,且其贡献率不断增大,而区域内差异、区域间差异的贡献率正趋于一致。③未来江苏沿海城市建设用地呈中低速扩张的概率较大,土地粗放利用问题将趋于缓解。结合上述研究结论,本文提出了遏制建设用地过快扩张、促进土地利用提质增效等方面的有益启示。
<<With the continuous development of industrialization and urbanization,the scale of urban construction land has been expanding,which had caused the agricultural land declining sharply,environment degrading,land no-intensive using,and so on. Accompanied by the publishment of The Development Plan of Jiangsu Coastal Area,the development of the Jiangsu coastal area had being into the fast lane. As the construction land is an important resource of the city development,the reasonable control of its expansion,the scientific developing plan of the land had becoming urgency. Used the panel data of the 23 counties in Jiangsu coastal cities from 2011 to 2015,this paper researched the dynamic evolution characteristics and spatial differences of the construction land expansion in Jiangsu coastal cities. In this process,the city construction land expansion rate was the index,and the Gauss Kernel density estimation,Gini coefficient decomposition,Markov chain method,etc. was be used. The results showed that:(a)During the investigation period,the expansion rates of the construction land in Jiangsu coastal cities slowed down,and the internal differences were gradually reduced,accompanied by the phenomenon of polarization. The characteristics of the construction land expansion in Nantong,Yancheng and Lianyungang were not same,but the basic trend was “south high and north low”.(b)During the investigation period,the Gini coefficient of the urban construction land expansion in Jiangsu coastal cities was decreased firstly and increased subsequently. The inner Gini coefficient of the investigation region was decreasing successively in Lianyungang,Yancheng and Nantong. The Gini coefficient between regions was changing during the investigation period,among which the difference between Nantong and Lianyungang was the biggest. The intensity of transvariation was the main reason which caused the spatial difference of the construction land expansion in Jiangsu coastal cities and its contribution rate was been increasing. By contrast,the contribution rates of inner Gini coefficient and the Gini coefficient between regions were shrinking and tending to be consistent.(c)In the future,the probability that the construction land expansion would be medium or low velocity was large,which indicated that the phenomenon of the land was be extensive used tended to be eased. Based on the above research conclusions,this paper put forward some useful inspirations to contain the rapid expansion of the construction land and promote the efficiency of the land using.
<<Keywords: | Dynamic EvolutionSpatial DifferenceConstruction Land ExpansionGini Coefficient DecompositionMarkov Chain |