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    2016~2017年拉美经济形势:持续下探 反弹乏力

    摘要

    2016年,世界经济持续疲弱,“黑天鹅”事件频发,全球贸易和投资继续走低,大宗商品价格低迷,拉美和加勒比地区经济连续衰退,地区整体经济增长、通胀、就业和国际贸易等多项基础指标均不及上年。三大次区域经济增速均有所下滑,地区间的分化持续扩大,中美洲地区的经济指标依旧领先于南美洲和加勒比地区。面对经济困难,地区各国采取了针对性的财政政策和货币政策,但受限于政策空间,经济政策显现短期性和应急性特征。展望未来,在外部出现利好的形势下,2017年地区经济有望扭转加速下滑的局面,甚至恢复一定增长。但是,在外部不确定性加大的背景下,地区经济在中短期内难以实现强势反弹,其经济复苏的波动态势还会延续,反映经济基本面的各项基础指标仍难获得较大改善,而内部增长差异还将继续。

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    Abstract

    In 2016,due to the slowness of world economic growth,the relevantly frequent “black swan” event,the declining commodity prices and the slumped international trade and FDI,the economy of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) are remained in continuing recession. A series of basic indicators,such as the regional overall economic growth,consumer price index,employment rate and international trade volume,turned out worse than the previous year. All the sub-regions were in deceleration,while the intra-regional difference widened. The economic indicators in Central America performed better than those in the Caribbean and South America. The LAC countries,faced with economic difficulties,implemented the targeted fiscal and monetary policy. However,as the policy spaces were constrained,these policies were characterized by short-term and emergency features. Looking ahead,with the external environment turning better,the region might recover growth in 2017,though it will be hard to rebound because of the increasing uncertainties. With the volatility in economy,the basic economic indicators will remain weak,while the differentiation is likely to be further exacerbated among the sub-regions.

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    作者简介
    岳云霞:岳云霞,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济室研究员,经济学博士,主要研究方向为拉美经济、国际贸易与投资。
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