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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2016年全球新兴产业发展态势与未来趋势

    摘要

    2016年,以节能环保、高端装备制造、生物医药、新能源、新材料、信息产业、现代物流等为代表的新兴产业,连续三年保持了全球产业增长极优势,2016年前三季度全球新兴产业平均增速达到7。8%,比2015年和2014年同期分别提升0。2个和0。6个百分点。从2016年主要国家新兴产业发展态势看,美国抢占机器人和人工智能领域的全球技术主导权,日本创新调整新兴产业发力点,德国构建工业集成系统推动工业4。0实施,英国抢占生物和新材料领域的全球技术制高点,韩国战略调整成长动力细分领域并培育新增长点。从2016年全球新兴产业发展特点来看,一是全球规模总体平稳,增速下滑,市场分化;二是技术创新由通用共性技术向细分领域产品技术聚焦,发达国家掌控产业创新导向;三是全球格局调整,开启了新一轮新兴产业细分领域全球主导权的争夺;四是国家战略密集调整出台,扶持导向更加明晰。从2017年全球新兴产业发展趋势看,石墨烯产品、人工智能产品将在2017年集中发力;模块化全球生产网络将趋于稳定;产业内部融合发展将大力提升价值链延伸能力。

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    Abstract

    In the first three quarters of 2016,emerging industries represented by energy-saving and environmental protection,high-end equipment manufacturing,biomedicine,new energy,new materials,information industry and modern logistics,have maintained its advantage as the global industrial growth pole for three consecutive years. The average growth rate of global emerging industries in the first three quarters of 2016 reached 7.8%,which is increased by 0.2 percentage point compared to the last whole year,and by 0.6 percentage point compared to the same period of 2015. As for the development trends of emerging industries in major countries in 2016,the United States takes the leading position in robots and artificial intelligence;Japan shifts it development emphasis;Germany promotes the implementation of Industrial 4.0 by constructing industrial integrated systems;the UK dominates the bioindustry and new material industry;South Korea adjusts its strategies and develops new growth momentum in segmented domains. In 2016,emerging industries have presented the following features. Firstly,the overall market scale is stabilized,with growth declining and market differentiated. Secondly,the developed countries led the technological innovation,which shifted from general-purpose technology to applied technology in segmented fields. Thirdly,the international competition undergoes great adjustment,and competitions for the global dominance in segmented fields arise. Lastly,national strategies are introduced intensively,providing more detailed guidance. In 2017,graphene and artificial products will be attached great priority;Global modular production network tends to be stable;integral development within industry will enable the industry to extent the value chain.

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    作者简介
    刘丹:刘丹,国家工业信息安全发展研究中心高级工程师,博士后,研究方向为工业经济运行分析。
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