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谢伏瞻
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    应对气候变化政策和目标对就业影响的评估分析

    摘要

    旨在降低温室气体排放,引导能源结构和经济结构调整的气候政策会对经济社会产生深远的影响。节能减排目标的完成与就业问题密切相关。积极应对气候变化,遏制全球变暖已成为全球共识,低碳发展是未来经济发展的必然选择,考察相关的气候政策和行动对就业可能造成的影响,是正确选择政策目标和评估政策影响的重要课题。气候政策能够给林业和新能源、节能服务等一些新兴产业创造大量绿色的就业机会,但同时也会给煤炭开采和其他高耗煤产业带来不利冲击,导致就业减少。正确评估各部门的具体影响,并基于研究提出有针对性的政策建议,大力鼓励具有就业创造效应的行业快速发展,同时解决好面临就业损失压力的行业和地区可能面临的问题,以便发挥气候政策实现减排和就业创造的双重红利。

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    Abstract

    It is designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions,the policy on the induction and adjustment of energy structure will create a profound impact on the economy and society. Energy saving and emission reduction targets are closely related. In order to correctly select the policy objectives and evaluate the impact of policies,it is essential to respond actively to climate change and improve the situation of global warming,which has become a global consensus;low carbon development is an inevitable choice of economic development in the future;to examine the potential impact of climate policy and action on employment. Climate policy is able to offer more job opportunities in the field of new energy,energy conservation,forestry services and other emerging industries. On the other hand,this will also create a negative impact on the field of coal mining and other high coal consumption which leads to employment reduction. In order to achieve the double bonus on emission reduction and job creation in the field of climate policy,it is essential to assess the impact of every department present policy suggestions based on research,and encourage the rapid development of industries with potential creation. At the same time,it is better to solve the potential problem to reduce the pressure of employment.

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    作者简介
    潘家华:潘家华,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所所长,研究员。
    张莹:张莹,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员。
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