本文比较国家统计局住户调查数据和《资金流量表》数据,估算了近年来“统计外收入”的规模和结构,分析了影响居民收入与经济增长同步性的因素。研究发现,基于住户调查的城乡居民收入存在被低估情况,这些收入我们称之为“统计外收入”。据推算,1992年以来,居民人均可支配收入遗漏率在18%到27%之间波动。工资性收入和转移性收入遗漏率低,经营性收入和财产性收入遗漏率高。遗漏率既受到统计制度改革的影响,也受到经济形势的影响。大量“统计外收入”的存在,意味着我国居民收入水平实际上更高些,居民收入与经济增长之间的同步性会更好些,但也意味着实现2020年城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目标的实际难度更大。总的来看,未来一个时期,居民收入增长将会保持与经济增长大致同步态势。
<<The ‘External revenue’ is one of the most important factors which affect the income and the synchronization of economic growth. This article compares the National Bureau of statistics of household survey data with the “cash flow” data. Based on this fact,itestimates the scale and structure of the recent ‘external revenue’ and also analyses the factors which impact the synchronization between residents’ income and economic growth. Based on the recent research,the income of urban and rural residents on the basis of household survey data is known as ‘external revenue’. According to the “funds flow statement”,the missing rate of the disposable income per capital fluctuates between 18 to 27 percent. Since 2012,the omission rate has started to decrease gradually and in 2014 the rate has been 20.6 percent. The economic situation leads to a low rate of wage and transfer income and a high rate of operating and property income,and also brings a negative impact on omission rate due to the reform of statistical system. The existence of the large number of ‘external revenue’ means that the actual residential income level is higher than the expected level and the synchronization between income and economic growth will be positive. On the other hand,this also means that it will be more difficult to double the residential income per capita in 2020 compared with that in 2010. Overall,the growth of income and economic growth will be maintained.
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