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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2016年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议

    摘要

    在国家强农惠农富农政策的支持下,2016年中国农业农村经济持续稳定发展。粮食再获丰收,但粮食总产量较上年有小幅下降,结束了连续十二年的增长。第一产业在国民经济中的比重进一步下降。大米和小麦进口量上升,玉米进口量下降。农村居民收入持续增长,城乡收入比2。72;农村居民的消费结构进一步升级。受国际粮食价格下降的影响,国内三大主粮的生产者价格全线下降,但猪肉价格涨幅明显。总体上看,中国当前农业农村发展仍然具有较强的内生动力。但农业农村经济运行中的各种矛盾逐渐凸显,潜在的粮食供需矛盾依然存在,农业面源污染和农产品质量等安全问题突出,农业的国际竞争力趋弱,农民进一步增收的压力较大。为此,要调整国家粮食安全政策的思路,强化对农业国际竞争力的重视,建立保障农民持续增收的长效机制,并为农业农村绿色转型提供政策支持。

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    Abstract

    Supported by a series of preferential policies,China’s agricultural economy and rural development remain a stable progression in 2016. The proportion of the primary industry in the national economy has further declined.,Although the output of grain has another harvest,the total grain production has declined slightly over the previous year,ending its continuous growth for 12 years. Rice and wheat imports increased,corn imports declined. The income of rural residents keeps growing,and the urban-rural income ratio declines to 2.72. Domestic producer prices of wheat,rice and maize all fall obviously,which affected by the reduction of international grain prices,while pork price has a significant increase. In general,China’s agricultural economic growth still has a strong endogenous momentum. However,the inherent problems in agricultural economy are increasingly prominent. Potential contradiction between grain supply and demand still exists. The excessive use of fertilizer results in serious non-point source pollution and food safety issues. China’s agriculture economy still suffers from low competitiveness in global market. And it becomes more difficult to further increase farmers’ income. Accordingly,we should adjust the national food security policy,attach more importance toimprove the international competitiveness of agriculture,establish a long-term mechanism to promote farmers’ income,and provide policy support for the green transformation of agriculture and rural areas.

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    作者简介
    魏后凯:魏后凯,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所所长,研究员,博士生导师。
    全世文:全世文,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员。
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